CMC Markets专栏:非农业前货币走势图一揽

本周由于中国股市的急速下滑，导致市场“避险”情绪高涨，货币市场出现两极分化的情况，避险性货币-欧元、日元、瑞郎逐步走强，商品货币-纽币、澳币、加币持续下滑。2016年开端的市场巨幅震荡也许注定了今年将是金融市场的不平之年。今日在亚洲市场开盘时间，市场便出现大幅震荡的行情，美元相对于欧元、日元、瑞郎出现急速走强，全球股市出现低位迅速反弹，似乎市场终于出现了短暂的喘息之际。但是否行情会由此反转还是未知，各技术图表的形态仍然显示警报还未解除，道路仍旧任重道远。

近两日的市场行情并没有完全符合我们在前两日的技术形态的解析，在市场绝大部分投资者对于突如起来的风险提高警觉时，也许技术图形的各种指标会暂时失灵。昨日欧元对美元反弹冲破了我们所预期的潜在阻力位置1.0840的空间，一度上破1.09整数位置，此时我们要提高警觉，是否这意味着欧元已经站稳阻力位置以上而将挑战新高。纽币、澳币依旧无法摆脱继续下行的命运，虽然亚洲市场开盘时间出现急速的上行但又迅速回落。各大股市也是随中国股市的大幅正当而先涨后跌。而今夜将有美国新年第一次非农业就业数据公布，将可能给市场带来再次的大幅震荡行情，根据ADP数据显示，本次非农有可能好于预期，美元有可能会因此而再次走强。以下我们从各技术图表形态来做探讨。

欧元/美元

欧元/美元目前正在测试重要的潜在阻力位置1.09-1.10的空间，此位置很有可能是空头入场的重要位置，如果不能突破仍然会顺势下行而再探前低1.0460-1.05附近。（但如果1.01被顺利突破则会打开进一步的上行空间）基本面上，美联储加息，欧央行宽松仍然是支持欧元下行的依据。

美元/日元

美元/日元正在逐渐测试116.50-117区间的重要支持位置，如果能够支持住，则美元对日元将可能再次上行探测前高125.80附近的位置，（但如果此支持位置被下破则有可能打开下行空间）。月线图上有潜在的下降楔形向上突破的形态。

纽币/美元

纽币/美元并无转机之意，周线图有可能形成楔形整理后向下突破的行情，则下方的中长期空头目标有可能探测0.5960附近。

澳币/美元

澳币/美元与纽币相似，有可能探底前低0.6900附近，如果延续跌势则中长期的潜在空头目标可能为0.6750，然后是0.6610。

黄金

黄金受避险情绪影响，近日涨势较强，下一个潜在上行目标有可能在1134附近。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。